United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004
United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004
2000 ←
 November 2, 2004
 → 2008
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,455,713 1,259,171
Percentage 53.3% 46.1%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican
Elections in Missouri

The 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Missouri was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 7.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 10 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. He also won a wide majority of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Despite the fact that the state has voted for the eventual winner of the election in a presidential election since 1912, with the exception of the 1956, Bush carried this state with a larger margin of victory than his nationwide results, indicating that the state is more conservative than the rest of the country and that it's trending Republican. These factors eventually led the state to lose its bellwether status in the next election.

Contents

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are there last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Toss Up
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

From May 2004, Bush won every single poll from the state. The final 3 polls taken from the state averaged Bush leading with 51% to 45%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,026,802.[3] Kerry raised $1,418,159.[4]

Advertising and visits

This state was considered a major swing state. Both the Republican ticket and Democratic ticket visited the state 7 times in the general election. Kerry focused mostly on the urban areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City, while Bush focused more on rural such as Warrenton, Missouri and Sedalia, Missouri.[5]

Analysis

This was a better result for President Bush than 2000, when he carried the state by only 3%. In 2004, he received 265,789 more votes than in 2000, while Kerry won only 148,033 more votes than Gore in 2000. Bush won by a 7% margin. Kerry won just 4 counties in the state: Jackson County, Sainte Genevieve, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City.

Results

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Party George W. Bush 1,455,713 53.3% 11
Democratic Party John Kerry 1,259,171 46.1% 0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik 9,831 0.4% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka 5,355 0.2% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 1,294 0.1% 0
Totals - 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)[6][7] 63.6%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Adair 43.3% 4,938 55.8% 6,367 0.9% 99
Andrew 37.1% 3,069 62.1% 5,135 0.8% 62
Atchison 31.8% 1,005 67.7% 2,137 0.4% 14
Audrain 40.4% 4,318 58.9% 6,294 0.7% 71
Barry 30.3% 4,223 68.9% 9,599 0.8% 105
Barton 22.9% 1,373 76.3% 4,572 0.8% 46
Bates 40.1% 3,398 59.1% 5,004 0.8% 64
Benton 37.5% 3,381 61.9% 5,575 0.6% 53
Bollinger 29.8% 1,754 69.6% 4,102 0.7% 39
Boone 49.5% 37,643 49.7% 37,801 0.8% 602
Buchanan 46.9% 17,799 52.2% 19,812 0.9% 339
Butler 28.4% 4,666 71.1% 11,696 0.5% 79
Caldwell 38.5% 1,645 60.8% 2,593 0.7% 30
Callaway 36.9% 6,559 62.5% 11,108 0.6% 106
Camden 32.3% 6,296 67.2% 13,122 0.5% 101
Cape Girardeau 30.6% 10,568 68.9% 23,814 0.5% 183
Carroll 33.1% 1,568 66.5% 3,155 0.4% 18
Carter 34.7% 964 64.7% 1,797 0.6% 18
Cass 37.7% 16,681 61.6% 27,253 0.6% 283
Cedar 30.8% 1,910 68.3% 4,238 0.9% 55
Chariton 43.6% 1,892 55.8% 2,421 0.6% 27
Christian 28.9% 9,059 70.5% 22,102 0.6% 187
Clark 48.0% 1,794 50.8% 1,899 1.2% 43
Clay 46.3% 44,670 53.1% 51,193 0.6% 597
Clinton 43.7% 4,165 55.4% 5,287 0.9% 88
Cole 32.0% 11,753 67.4% 24,752 0.5% 196
Cooper 32.0% 2,400 67.4% 5,058 0.7% 50
Crawford 38.7% 3,632 60.6% 5,686 0.7% 63
Dade 27.0% 1,104 72.5% 2,963 0.5% 22
Dallas 33.2% 2,407 66.0% 4,788 0.9% 64
Daviess 37.0% 1,402 62.0% 2,351 1.1% 41
DeKalb 36.4% 1,707 62.8% 2,941 0.8% 38
Dent 29.6% 1,865 69.3% 4,369 1.1% 70
Douglas 27.5% 1,741 71.1% 4,498 1.4% 88
Dunklin 42.0% 4,901 57.5% 6,720 0.5% 56
Franklin 40.9% 18,556 58.3% 26,429 0.7% 333
Gasconade 32.8% 2,355 66.3% 4,753 0.9% 63
Gentry 36.3% 1,201 63.0% 2,085 0.8% 26
Greene 37.2% 46,657 62.2% 77,885 0.6% 724
Grundy 32.5% 1,561 66.0% 3,172 1.6% 75
Harrison 31.6% 1,279 67.4% 2,729 1.0% 40
Henry 41.0% 4,461 58.5% 6,361 0.5% 55
Hickory 42.0% 2,043 57.4% 2,791 0.7% 32
Holt 30.1% 811 69.3% 1,864 0.6% 16
Howard 40.1% 1,972 59.2% 2,915 0.7% 34
Howell 31.2% 5,118 67.8% 11,097 1.0% 164
Iron 46.1% 2,157 52.9% 2,477 1.0% 45
Jackson 58.1% 183,654 41.3% 130,500 0.6% 1,839
Jasper 28.8% 13,002 70.6% 31,846 0.5% 237
Jefferson 49.4% 46,057 50.0% 46,624 0.6% 583
Johnson 38.5% 7,790 60.6% 12,257 0.9% 189
Knox 38.5% 761 61.0% 1,207 0.5% 10
Laclede 28.3% 4,213 71.1% 10,578 0.5% 78
Lafayette 39.6% 6,412 59.7% 9,656 0.7% 114
Lawrence 28.5% 4,506 70.8% 11,194 0.7% 106
Lewis 37.8% 1,754 61.6% 2,862 0.6% 28
Lincoln 42.2% 8,368 57.0% 11,316 0.8% 155
Linn 41.4% 2,440 58.0% 3,422 0.6% 36
Livingston 35.9% 2,278 63.5% 4,029 0.6% 39
McDonald 28.7% 2,215 70.5% 5,443 0.9% 67
Macon 37.7% 2,856 61.7% 4,673 0.5% 41
Madison 40.1% 1,972 59.1% 2,905 0.8% 41
Maries 35.3% 1,563 63.9% 2,825 0.8% 36
Marion 36.7% 4,568 62.8% 7,815 0.6% 70
Mercer 32.0% 582 66.4% 1,207 1.5% 28
Miller 27.3% 2,959 72.0% 7,797 0.7% 75
Mississippi 44.8% 2,374 54.8% 2,903 0.4% 21
Moniteau 28.6% 1,913 70.9% 4,743 0.5% 35
Monroe 38.2% 1,647 61.1% 2,632 0.7% 28
Montgomery 37.3% 2,147 61.9% 3,563 0.9% 50
Morgan 34.8% 3,053 64.5% 5,657 0.7% 61
New Madrid 47.0% 3,716 52.5% 4,154 0.5% 37
Newton 27.5% 6,564 71.9% 17,187 0.6% 138
Nodaway 37.8% 3,830 61.5% 6,226 0.6% 63
Oregon 39.0% 1,823 59.3% 2,769 1.7% 81
Osage 25.1% 1,673 74.6% 4,975 0.3% 23
Ozark 33.2% 1,561 65.5% 3,083 1.3% 63
Pemiscot 49.7% 3,381 49.9% 3,398 0.4% 27
Perry 31.8% 2,621 67.7% 5,583 0.5% 43
Pettis 33.2% 5,801 66.3% 11,603 0.5% 92
Phelps 35.6% 6,666 63.5% 11,874 0.9% 160
Pike 45.6% 3,670 53.7% 4,314 0.7% 56
Platte 43.9% 18,412 55.5% 23,302 0.6% 256
Polk 30.3% 3,775 68.9% 8,586 0.7% 92
Pulaski 29.1% 3,551 70.5% 8,618 0.4% 52
Putnam 31.6% 772 67.9% 1,660 0.5% 13
Ralls 40.3% 2,031 59.3% 2,986 0.3% 17
Randolph 35.2% 3,586 64.2% 6,551 0.6% 61
Ray 46.7% 5,034 52.6% 5,673 0.8% 81
Reynolds 43.1% 1,449 56.4% 1,896 0.6% 19
Ripley 33.7% 1,907 65.3% 3,693 0.9% 53
St. Charles 40.9% 66,855 58.6% 95,826 0.5% 807
St. Clair 37.1% 1,841 62.4% 3,098 0.5% 26
St. Genevieve 52.6% 4,281 46.5% 3,791 0.9% 74
St. Francois 46.9% 10,748 52.7% 12,087 0.4% 98
St. Louis City 80.3% 116,133 19.2% 27,793 0.5% 712
St. Louis County 54.4% 295,284 45.1% 244,969 0.5% 2,730
Saline 45.1% 4,479 54.2% 5,389 0.7% 71
Schuyler 44.0% 894 55.3% 1,124 0.6% 13
Scotland 37.7% 828 61.5% 1,352 0.8% 17
Scott 34.7% 6,057 64.9% 11,330 0.3% 61
Shannon 38.8% 1,618 60.3% 2,511 0.9% 38
Shelby 34.3% 1,201 65.1% 2,280 0.6% 21
Stoddard 29.8% 3,946 69.7% 9,242 0.5% 64
Stone 30.1% 4,578 69.4% 10,534 0.5% 77
Sullivan 38.1% 1,178 60.9% 1,880 1.0% 31
Taney 29.1% 5,601 70.4% 13,578 0.5% 101
Texas 33.3% 3,664 65.7% 7,234 1.1% 120
Vernon 35.7% 3,206 63.7% 5,732 0.6% 54
Warren 40.7% 5,461 58.7% 7,883 0.7% 88
Washington 48.6% 4,459 50.6% 4,641 0.8% 78
Wayne 36.3% 2,250 63.2% 3,919 0.6% 35
Webster 31.2% 4,657 68.2% 10,194 0.6% 93
Worth 38.5% 436 61.0% 691 0.4% 5
Wright 26.2% 2,188 73.0% 6,090 0.8% 68

By congressional district

Bush won 6 of 9 congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry
1st 25% 75% William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd 60% 40% Todd Akin
3rd 43% 57% Dick Gephardt
Russ Carnahan
4th 64% 35% Ike Skelton
5th 40% 59% Karen McCarthy
Emanuel Cleaver
6th 57% 42% Sam Graves
7th 67% 32% Roy Blunt
8th 64% 36% Jo Ann Emerson
9th 59% 41% Kenny Hulshof

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[9]

  1. Rosemary Kochner
  2. Fred Dyer
  3. Miriam Stonebraker
  4. Carolyn McDowell
  5. Cathy Owens
  6. Steve Krueger
  7. Emory Melton
  8. John Schudy
  9. Richard Hardy
  10. John Marshalk
  11. Warren Erdman

References

  1. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=29
  3. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MO/
  6. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  7. ^ Carnahan Announces Record Number of Missourians Cast Ballots in General Election from the website of the Missouri Secretary of State
  8. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  9. ^ http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/2004general/presElectors_MORepublican.asp

See also
United States elections, 2004 · Candidates  · Debates · Timeline · Super Tuesday · Potomac primary · Mini-Tuesday · International reaction (Canada)
Republican Party
Convention • Primaries •
Primary results
Nominee: George W. Bush (campaign)
VP nominee: Dick Cheney
Candidates: John Buchanan
Democratic Party
Convention • Primaries •
Primary results
Controversies
 
Constitution Party
Convention
Nominee: Michael Peroutka
VP nominee: Chuck Baldwin
Green Party
Convention
Nominee: David Cobb
VP nominee: Pat LaMarche
Candidates: Sheila Bilyeu · Peter Camejo  · Paul Glover  · Kent Mesplay  · Lorna Salzman
Libertarian Party
Convention
Nominee: Michael Badnarik
VP nominee:Richard Campagna
Candidates: Gary Nolan · Aaron Russo
Personal Choice Party
Nominee: Charles Jay
VP nominee: Marilyn Chambers
Prohibition Party
Nominee: Gene Amondson · Alternate nominee: Earl Dodge
Socialist Equality Party
Socialist Party USA
Nominee: Walt Brown
VP nominee: Mary Alice Herbert
Candidates: Eric Chester
Socialist Workers Party
Nominee: Róger Calero · Alternate nominee: James Harris
VP nominee: Arrin Hawkins
Workers World Party
Nominee: John Parker
VP nominee: Teresa Gutierrez
Independents and other candidates
Other 2004 elections: House • Senate • Gubernatorial
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